From time to time I come across websites describing the imminent financial end of days, and how only those with gold (and presumably guns) will survive. The basic idea goes like this: weak economies and decaying civilizations are being propped up by governments and central banks through manipulation of financial markets, unduly benefiting the elite in the process, and the price of gold must be artificially suppressed to mask any signal of the true (i.e. low) value of fiat currency and financial assets. The day of reckoning is coming.
While this all seems a bit extreme, I do wonder what harm all the extraordinary monetary measures, deployed over the last several years, are causing. Presumably there is a bubble forming somewhere. Add to that concern, the disproportionately lackluster response from the real economy reveals deep problems that will not be solved any time soon.
Monday, September 22, 2014
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
Brian Wieser on Bloomberg Surveillance on May 30th talks about the idea that in traditional TV and radio media, it's the publishers that have the informational advantage--they know what the ad spots are worth and the advertisers do not. On the internet, the situation is reversed. The publisher doesn't know as much as the advertising buyer does about the user after they click away from the publisher's website. In other words, it's not as simple as more time spent on Facebook equals more ad revenue.
Monday, June 4, 2012
Follow-up to Monday's post on the U.S. Consumer... Retail sales (RRSFS) have held up in period where:
- Housing price (SPCS20RSA) decreases have stopped accelerating to the downside
- Jobless claims (IC4WSA) have been coming down towards more "normal" levels
- Oil price (DCOILWTICO) increases have decelerated and actually gone negative
- Interest rates (GS10) have moved lower from already low levels
Note: everything in the chart expressed as Y/Y% change.
Friday, June 1, 2012
First, my definition of the problem: the common currency without (truly) common fiscal, monetary, political, and cultural systems means everyone is effectively borrowing in a foreign currency.
Now, two suggested solutions:
- Form a true union like the U.S. (although, not necessarily that structure, but you know what I mean).
This is the obvious answer that solves many of the issues that were pointed out even at the inception of the EU and Euro. Unfortunately it's very unlikely to occur, as the EU members are unlikely to give up their sovereignty.
- Germany leaves the Euro. This is the less obvious answer. Germany, more than others, can bear the transitional pains of a currency shock (appreciation in their case) and banking losses on loans denominated in Euros. The scenario of Greece leaving would be calamitous not only for Greece (currency depreciation in their case... assuming anyone would accept Drachmas), but also for a host of weaker-than-Germany nations that have lent to them.
Update: so it turns out Ambrose Evans-Pritchard already thought of my "less obvious answer" like two years ago. Goes to show you that anything and everything you can imagine is already on the internet.
This is the only break-up scenario that makes much sense. A German exit would allow Club Med to uphold contracts in euros and devalue with least havoc to internal debt markets. The German bloc would enjoy a windfall gain. The D-Mark II would be stronger. Borrowing costs would fall. The North-South gap in competitiveness could be bridged with less disruption for both sides.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
More support for buying quality dividend paying stocks...
The gist of it is just like it sounds: investing in quality companies that pay out sustainable dividends tend to generate the highest returns over the long run.
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
From the WSJ Blog:
Facebook is more than a company bet. It is “an option on the World.”My humble take: the internet is made of cats, not friends. Also, dogs.
The best question for FB is how to value it,” Needham writes. “Our point of view is that FB should be valued based on revenue potential from total minutes spent on FB times its powerful margin expansion engine.”
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
In keeping with some past thoughts on dividend stocks I have been buying VIG. If rates are destined to stay low for some time then I think there's going to be greater interest in searching for yield in quality dividend payers. This is not an original idea, and expert interviews at some media outlets would give you the impression that everyone and their dog is in this trade, but retail investors still seem to be shunning stocks and buying bonds. It is difficult to see how investors can meet their future liabilities (children's college, mortgage, retirement income, etc) in bond funds with negative real yields going out 10 years and cash paying near zero percent.
Monday, May 28, 2012
Is it safe to invest in the U.S. consumer? Some investors must think so. From Feb 23, 2012 to May 25, 2012, XLY has outperformed SPY by 4.23% (price returns)--that's for less than three months. Over the same period, OIL was down 16.8%. Lower gasoline costs and the housing situation no longer accelerating to the downside could explain why retail sales have been reasonably resilient considering everything that's going on with de-leveraging, high unemployment, and daily doom and gloom coming from global factors.
So what do you think, is it safe?
So what do you think, is it safe?
Sunday, May 27, 2012
David Kotok at Cumberland Advisors writes about the Beveridge Curve on May 4, 2012 and graphs job vacancy vs the U6 from Dec'00-Feb'12. He notes that the curve moves from the top left to the bottom right. Conclusions: higher levels of unemployment is structural (and remember, gains have been due to lower participation), inflation and interest rates will stay low, and profits will stay high.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Businessweek (and others) published a piece on the Coca-Cola bond offering that spoke to (1) the pace and size of debt being issued recently; and (2) strong investor interest resulting in extremely low absolute and relative yields. The FT sums it up:
"Investors wrestling with a low yield environment are opting for the safety of owning company debt backed by solid balance sheets. That explains why companies such as McDonalds, IBM, Walt Disney and Procter & Gamble have sold paper at record low yields this year."
Large cap quality stocks (defined loosely as profitable, modestly leveraged, dividend paying large multi-nationals) are in a position to borrow very cheaply relative to the Treasury and LIBOR yield curves, and very cheaply on an absolute basis.
As an example, Microsoft's 4% Feb 2021 bond has a yield of 2.39% which is only 10bps above the benchmark 10 yr US Treasury (source: TRACE). To compare the absolute level against something, a quick number to grab is the EBITDA/EnterpriseValue of about 12.72% (source for all data is Yahoo! Finance unless otherwise stated).
The obvious advantages of raising debt is the cash to invest in efficiencies, growth, other companies, and their own stock. Furthermore, these are not bad stocks to own right now in a variety of scenarios. For example...
- If we continue to see an environment of slow, but positive, U.S. growth in a zero-to-low rate environment due to continued uncertainty about jobs, housing, the Euopean debt crisis, and political brinksmanship: then we continue to enjoy a healthy dividend (2.4% in the Microsoft example) and benefit from any stock buybacks.
- If conditions result in another recession: then we continue to enjoy the dividend (assuming it is not the end of the world... again) and some relative downside protection vs other more growthy stocks and more volatile risk assets.
- If economic conditions improve: then we may expect to enjoy not only stock buybacks but dividend hikes as earnings grow--and companies will have stockpiled cheap cash to deploy for that growth.
What are your thoughts on these stocks?
Disclosure: long position in Microsoft